Yes, I love to fish. Yes, I love bears, and no, not the kind that leave fresh scat for me to step in while on the trail two weekends ago. I mean the Baylor Bears. While I started this blog for all things fish, I am taking a break and throwing up (see: vomiting) a little quip on what I think it will take in order for my dear ol' Bears of Baylor to break through to one of the top two spots in the BCS...
What Baylor Needs To Do:
I laid in bed last night with my phone, which is never conducive to going to sleep. Before I set it down I looked at the BCS rankings, the various team's schedules, and came up with what I believe will need to happen in order for my dear ol' Baylor Bears to have a shot at a National Title. Ahead of them lie Bama, Florida State, Oregon, Ohio State, and Stanford.
#1. Baylor must win the rest of its games. I can't imagine that the computers, the human polls, and all the other voodoo that goes into the BCS rankings would look too favorably on Baylor with a loss. That being said, one loss and they may still make it to a BCS Bowl Game, just not the chipper.
#2. Baylor must win the rest of its games convincingly. Squeaking out a win over unranked TCU might have the same effect as a loss to one of the three ranked teams remaining on their schedule (OU, TTU, and OSU). By showing the same amount of dominance they've displayed all season it will certainly help their chances of leapfrogging Ohio State, which is one thing they will have to do to get to the top. Ohio State's remaining schedule includes the equivalent of a decent 4A high school in Texas (Michigan) and two solid 3A New Mexico high schools (Illinois and Indiana). If they lose a game, great, but the odds are not good. That being said they have a BCS rating of .872. Baylor is at .775, almost a full tenth of a point behind, but if Baylor wins out against solid competition, I predict that they WILL pass "Thuh" Ohio State University.
#3. That brings us to the other teams ahead of the Bears. We'll start with Bama, who is solidly in the top spot. They probably won't lose a game. That's who the Bears hope to play, first because if they do, they'll be playing in the chipper. Secondly, because Baylor can beat them (45-38 I might add). However, if the Tide gets rolled, great, more room for Bears.
#4. Florida State leapfrogged Oregon this last week but as they play a weaker remaining schedule than Ohio State (see #2.), they will not stay there unless they can hang 80 points on all of them. Florida will more than likely win the rest of their games, but if they don't do so in a big way, they will fall in the rankings, giving Baylor a shot at catching up by as early as the end of November.
#5. That brings us to Oregon and Stanford. Thank goodness that they play each other this Thursday. The winner will gain quite a few points in the polls, and the loser should fall out of the top 6, making room for BU to move up. Should we root for a close game? I think not. If Stanford squeaks by Oregon they may very well just trade places. A convincing win by either would help, but more so a win by Stanford. This would knock Oregon out of contention while I believe that Stanford is more likely to be upset in their remaining schedule (USC, Cal, and Notre Dame). This is another key to the puzzle....
#6. The winner of Oregon and Stanford must be upset in one of their final three games. In my mind this is the biggest long shot, but, they still have to play the games.
There you have it folks. While this is in no way a detailed analysis, it IS a scenario. One that may work, or may not. Regardless, strange things happen in the BCS, and a hum-drum ending to the season will not bode well for the chances of Baylor adding a crystal football alongside RGIII's Heisman in the new stadium. Speaking of, the new stadium is coming along nicely. To see a live look at the progress check this out: http://www.baylor-stadium.com/
So, Bear fans, root for a blowout in the Ducks-"Tree" game, a poor finish by the Seminoles, a rotting Buckeye, and pour your support into USC, Cal, Notre Dame, Utah, Arizona, and Oregon State. Oh, and Sic 'Em Bears!